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Ky Weekly Video Analysis #2

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Something I noticed, Machaboo loves to 5P feint over opponent's wakeup. I'd say he's baiting reversals but I-no, Millia, and Zato only get access to theirs with 50 tension so it might just be his preferred method of setting up oki? He also seems to prefer ending his air combos without a HVT so he can chase the opponent more easily after they tech.


00:52 Round start 2HS, he probably thought Koishi would take to the air, CH by I-no 2S.

00:57 Escapes the botched setup with a 6P, gets a full combo and even tried to bait the burst with j.P! It looks like his block might have been crossed up when he falls under her or he just stopped blocking because he thought she wouldn't burst anymore.

01:34 He was probably mashing back throw but gets a 5HS CH. Machaboo is really making her setplay look weak and I don't have enough experience to tell if it's just Koichi messing up his setups or if Machaboo is just that good lol.

01:47 Round start j.K, looks like he's convinced she'll jump in but wanted to avoid 2S maybe? She backdashed away though so it whiffed.

02:08 Again with the 5HS CH on Koichi's oki, whatever I-no's trying it's not working.

02:14 He went for an air throw here but Karin escaped with a divekick.

02:48 c.S anti air, punishes her tech with 2H, punishes another forward tech with air throw.

02:53 Tries to set up CSE after in a bad spot, Koichi escapes with a sultry performance...

02:56 ...and Machaboo puts an end to that really quick with an HVT through her pressure

02:58 I really like stuff like this, Machaboo sets up CSE oki, runs after it, and pauses for moment as if he's about to throw, then throws out c.S. Koishi was smart and didn't bite, but if he had tried to mash out or jump the throw he would have had to deal with a c.S CH, or a c.S anti-air. I need to do simple stuff like this more often~

3:03 Machaboo may have made koishi afraid of recovering early, since he didn't escape this grey beat

And the rest of the match Ky successfully keeps I-no in the rainbow of sadness, abusing his range while she's cornered and forcing her to make drastic decisions to escape, including whiffing her gold burst.





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I noticed how GOOD he is at 6P ing Inos approach and resets. (More so 5H with reset even if it trades.) Ive  been practicing that with Faust lately. When Ino is doing her thing, when she touches the floor I kind of just assume shes gonna dash - press button soon after so I mash 6p-h. Obviously this can be blown up if done wrong but more often than not I get an anti air. 


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whiff jab throw is old school strats you dont see it that often in gg but its there

when he looks like he's trying to throw its because hes option selecting c.s and throw

this is pretty different from how he normally plays because he felt he could play more aggressively and relied on his team if he got knocked out, other than the high amount of slides its pretty much standard ky gameplay



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So his throw attempt missed and c.S came out because he was option selecting? That's probably more likely now that I think about it.

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I assume high level player's actions are always intentional too much ;_;

Once it was pointed out I was like why didn't I think of thattt



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Splitting this in two parts.  Forgive the slop as I'm con company time (lol).  


In which top players find ways to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory:


Semifinal 1: Machaboo vs Victim #1 (Hasegawa, green I-No)


Machaboo starts out pretty fast and loose, relatively speaking.  I-No kinda turtles up until she’s forced to S(?) dive out of the corner (which Machaboo IBs!).  Machaboo meets each note with a Stun Edge to prevent giving I-No a free way in.  This cycle repeats until I-No does HS Dive, aka Psycho Crusher, which was 99.9% input error.  Machaboo punishes appropriately and is rewarded I-No’s burst.  I-No finally starts some pressure up until she does HCL, which Stun Dipper conveniently goes right under.  Machaboo chooses to PRC and go nuts with 5HS and takes the combo but curiously doesn’t DP at the end (??).  They go back and forth for a bit until Machaboo does 2P 2K 2S 6K.  The resulting CH allows him to push more towards the corner and go fishing with 2HS, which doesn’t pay off twice.  I-No finally gets in a j.D which is burst IMMEDIATELY.  I-No techs and air dashes forward directly into j.K and an air punish (doesn’t end in DP because of range).  I-No lands and gets HCL YRC and starts to go in.  Machaboo badly whiffs the VT reversal, but (1)Hasegawa doesn’t get the punish.  A couple of seconds later, I-No gets tagged with 2K and loses the round.


Round 2:  We see what happens when I-No notes start getting in.  Machaboo gets pushed into the corner and then I-No does ground dash air dash (?????) and gets VT’d.  CSE run up throw to switch positions, CSE into mashing a bunch a lows which works for some reason.  Then the light show begins.  It’s not exactly the best performed mixup we’ve ever seen, nor does he get the abare 2HS to catch I-No’s jump out.  She squeezes out and gets HCL YRC and (2) drops the punish.  I-No begins rolling though Machaboo does an amazing job of IBing everything high and getting out a 6P (and the following 5D lol).  Reset neutral,   Ky gets her to the corner and starts harassing with f.S.  I-No gets a sick reversal of fortune air throw to start pressuring Ky in the corner right up until the beautiful 5P mash (5P 5P c.S into air combo) to close out the match.


vs. Sharon Elphelt:


Round 1, aka Spacing Goals 2015: look at how much damage Machaboo does -just- with far pokes and one throw on air Bridal. The 5P into combo to poke out ground Bridal is absolutely absurd.  He converts it into full VT loop, btw.  The following oki setup turns out to be too high on the air dash as he gets thrown into the corner.  El botches the first combo, but starts converting the second, which leads us to our first important lesson:


Don’t burst shotgun stance.  This is what usually happens.  


Round 2:  Super active 2D beats a curiously late button from El.  Pressure leads to throw which leads to pressure.  A bit of dancing and jostling for position (and lots of Slashes from Ky) leads to a raw Stun Dipper, and a moment later, f.S > Stun Dipper RC run up c.S 5H HSVT.  Pressure, read jump out Bridal, throw back in the corner, more pressure.  El reads the S Stun Edge and 2HSs under it.  Remember that can happen.  Yolo reversal VT magically connects (#spacing).  CSE YRC air throw closes the round.  Super Turbo at its finest.


Round 3: The Doren Special: Shotgun in neutral.  Machaboo is in Hellfire before he gets first damage in.  No meter, no burst.  The only things he has at this point are movement and -hope-.  Falling j.HS.  Side switch j.S 2D (Sharon blitzes here, but I don’t think that’s a critical error.  9 times out of 10, that connects and the game ends)..  Trade pokes.  j.S 2D again.  c.S, whiffed 6HS into 3HS GS (this is either calculated genius or massive autopilot--someone smarter than me can tell us), but the important part here is 3HS CHes and GS misses wildly.  So wildly, in fact that (3) what normally would have been a routine burst from Elphelt turns into a massive whiff and leads into a deadly corner situation.  A whole bunch of VTs later, Sharon has a pixel left and manages to tech out of the corner (don’t you love combos on light characters?).  Thankfully, c.S is a really good button and catches El crossing over and closes the match.


vs. Zadi (that really good Sin player)


Round 1:  Space the slide.  Space the slide.  Run out of space and get hit by slide.  Now begins the back and forth space battle which features more movement than button presses.  Sin eventually gets Ky to the corner, gets a 6P, and begins deleting lifebars.  Then he strolls up and throws because why not?  (4) Except throw RC combo drop is not exactly what he wanted.    Reversal of fortune throw into the corner, begins pressure, tries to get him with the Kizzer special of mashing low blockstrings into 5D twice, gets a random 3HS CH (should we really practice confirming off of that, you know, just in case?), gets a couple of 5Ps because lol air unblockable, Stun Dipper RC please feed me your burst?  No?  Okay.  Gets bursted across the screen for his troubles.  Machaboo goes for the naked CSE which gets slide punished as it should.  Scramble ensues, but Sin comes out on top.


Round 2:  Falling j.S is really really really good.  You know what else is good?  c.S trading with an air normal, but dashing up and picking up the combo with 2P(!!).  You know what’s not good?  Getting your CSE IB’d and running headlong into Hot Bacon.  Machaboo immediately turns it around with a very nice Stun Dipper under Beak Driver.  Pressure, baits Dead Angle, kill.  Clean.


Round 3:  The dance begins anew.  Don’t get hit by CH Beak Driver wall bounce though.  Damage is nuts if they convert.  Ky 6P is a great choice when he hits it as it’s fantastic as anti-air and sometimes just flat stuffs ground pokes.  And now comes the interesting part:  two throw OSes actually turn into massive CH c.S.  I don’t think either of them were expecting it, though Zadi gets the worse of the trade as his burst quickly becomes irrelevant.


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Grand Finals:

vs. Koichi purple I-No


Remember what happened to the other I-No?  How tournament nerves created botches that created I-No getting bopped?  Same thing here.  Koichi gets KD, gets the note, messes up the air dash which leads to a clash with Ky 6P instead of oki, which leads to Ky getting damage and I-No’s burst.  I-No keeps composure and gets an air throw which leads into a small combo that ends in STBT(?) which leads to Ky air tech j.S j.HS 2D(whiff) and I-No’s mashing super (wat).  No harm no foul, back to neutral.  Trade turns blocking, and Ky hits a super solid AA 6P > c.S > 2HS(1) > j.S j.S > RTL (helloooooo midscreen knockdown).  CSE oki afterwards looks weak though.  She just jumps out and goes back to business as usual.  STBT RC HCL YRC air dash overheads all get blocked.  Low > overhead finally does the trick, and Machaboo ends up in the corner.  


After watching this next sequence a few times, I think I finally get why Machaboo does what he does.  I-No throws a note and goes for a fake out by air dash landing (implying low) and goes for another air dash.  Machaboo chooses to press 5H after seeing I-No land a bit farther away than would be comfortable for her to go low.  He is rewarded with a MASSIVE CH which he follows up with dash up c.S into short air combo RTL.


Round 2:  No, seriously, what’s up with the random Psycho Crushers?  Guess it doesn’t matter too much ‘cause ayyy we finally got I-No combos!  5H trades with I-No (He must do it on anything he reads as late or delayed setups).  H air Stun Edge CH into 2P pickup (nice), but misses the air throw afterwards.  I-No gets going again (which gets Ky burst) and then they have a weird momentary standoff which ends in I-No getting 6P’d in the mouth again.  He doesn’t end his air combos with VT on purpose, it would seem, and this time he pays for it by eating I-No j.H on the way down.  Ayyy, combos.


Round 3: Finally gets the 2H he’s been fishing for, and catches tech with air throw.  I-No pressure starts again but Machaboo rips a HSVT to regain control.  From there, it’s just classic katame an a sexy air throw to close it out.  


vs. Karinchu Millia


Karinchu should have been a quarterback.  His ability to throw is ridiculous.  Seriously, watch this match without a critical eye and just look at how many times he just chokes it up.


Round 1:  The metagaming starts early.  Two people jump upforward, and Ky gets a throw.  This doesn’t happen in the real world lolololol.  6HS hits clean and Machaboo recognizes the situation and goes into 2P 2P burst safe route, but Karinchu holds burst.  Doesn’t matter--half his life is gone anyway.  Karinchu wiggles out and gets an air to ground confirm only to drop it (1).  It costs him his burst.  After another entertaining neutral dance, Karinchu lands a pin and confirms it into...nothing (2).  Millia goes Roll > Throw > Disc > TKBM and Ky properly responds with HSVT.  Then a weird sequence occurs with Ciel, Stun Edge YRC jump instant block land throw that I still don’t understand.  Then Karinchu decides to jump right into a 6P and die.  Ooooooookay.


Round 2:  Karinchu, please block low.  Gets hit by two 2Ds for no reason.  After getting poked around quite a bit, Pin into confirm into...5D? (3).  Machaboo then decides to donate 50 meter doing some weird air confirm (maybe he forgot he wasn’t Sol and can’t get VV > Followup?  lol).  Millia throw, sets disc and goes for acrossup.  Machaboo Gold bursts, lands and blocks.  Finally Millia gets the hit, takes him to the corner.  Throw reset?  Run it anyway.  Midscreen Secret Garden setup into Chroming Rose to do Karinchu stuff (my mans loves his installs--you should watch his Sol play!).  Machaboo whiffs the Stun Dipper, runs into a rose, and hits the most ridiculous 2D I have ever seen in all my days.  Who’s hitting a button there?  Certainly not me.  Then Machaboo does a burst safe combo (Millia bites, and then bites the dust).  


But seriously, that 2D tho.


vs. Ogawho?


Round 1: Rule #1: don’t end up above Zato.  Machaboo got caught up trying to air throw Ogawa and got caught in an air throw.  Then Eddie time starts, Machaboo IBs something (wtf did he IB?  I can’t even tell) and gets a throw into the corner.  Machaboo jumps and Ogawa reverses fortune with another sweet air throw.  Reversal VT kills Eddie ultra dead, but Ogawa goes for the command grab into oki to buy time for Lil’ Mans to come back.  Oki into pressure into Break The Law to dodge Stun Edge but he misses the YRC point (????) and gets swept for his troubles.  Three sequences of Ogawa trying to jump out later, he finally gets a throw to get out of the corner.  Machaboo bursts to try to take the round.  It doesn’t work as backdash dies to buzzsaw.


Round 2:  Quick string into pressure leads to Ogawa in the corner again, but he flies out and only has to eat a j.S for his troubles, but he’s back midscreen.  Machaboo rides deep on a Stun Dipper right into CH Nobiru and Ogawa converts.  The pressure is on.  Ogawa goes for the Evo-winning setup (lol) but Machaboo jumps the Dead Man’s Hand and whacks him with j.HS.  Back in neutral, Ogawa goes for a cheeky air throw setup with YRC, but Machaboo IBs the j.HS that comes out instead and gets a ground throw.  6HS, then Ogawa tries to blitz whatever comes next and has to hold the massive CH for guessing wrong.  Round ends quickly after that.


Round 3: Machaboo decides he’s not going in until he gets a hit, and he gets his full screen Stun Edge (lol, c’mon) and goes in.  Ogawa gets a couple of hits but misses the Nobiru and gets Stun Dippered.  6HS keeps pressure, 5HS...5D.  A tool he’s kept hidden from the entire team until he finally needed it.  And then a Stun Edge.  Tip of sword 2H.  And then the grandaddy of them all: a massive Greed Sever (RC’d to block the “pls no bully” burst) and das it mane.


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The biggest takeaways are that Machaboo is definitely not up to date with Xrd Ky theory, and plays the game as if it's #Reload with FRC points anytime he wants them for anything, but he's so good that it doesn't really matter. And his reflexes are apparently so good that he can react to Ino dash with 6P or CH 5H.

The not ending the air combo with VT is an old XX/#R tactic for mid-screen. The point is to land without recovery and set up okizeme against the air tech. You can land then CSE for a read on a back tech, as they will either fall on it or if not, they will air dash or double jump against a grounded Ky. Against forward or neutral tech, they're in the air against grounded Ky so you can choose to AA them as they try to escape, or set up a 50/50 right when they land by dashing and hitting them in front or from behind.

The Ciel, SE YRC, jump IB was clearly a SiN magic air throw attempt where he ended up with the IB chicken block instead, so gets to land and throw while Millia is in landing recovery.

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May as well C/P here too. Origin: https://twitter.com/Cluckw0rk/status/633398150246567936

My thoughts on Arc Revo Xrd finals.
(These are my opinions so you're welcome to disagree. I implore you to do so if you feel that way. This is also not a play by play and the grammar/terms might be off. I did this all on a phone during lunch.)

There were 3 things I felt contributed to Machaboo's victory over Koichi I-No, Karinchu Millia, and Ogawa Zato:

1) Understanding opposing character options during neutral.
2) Punishing from an opponent's attempt to over-extend otherwise simple oki/situations.
3) Boy, did these niggas fuck up.

Let me give some background. Koichi, Karinchu, and Ogawa are not only some of the best players in Xrd right now, but they are also the best at their characters (Karinchu being debatable [hi Woshige/Nakamura but he's top 3 easy]). Machaboo is arguably considered the best player in Xrd, hands down. He rarely uses his card anymore (pure fear?) and have been in 3 high profile ft10s which he has done insanely well in (FAB/Ogawa/Shanon). These people are all scary on paper. Machaboo beat them all in an ft1 setting with alot of money on the line. Pretty handily too, although you can obviously see some rather confusing decisions on the other team. Nerves? Oki that was never there in the first place? It happens yeah but if I can only sum up this grand final in one sentence, it's this:

Machaboo fucked these dude's heads up to see him preparing for something that was never theirs in the first place.

In other words, any chance they had to turn around matches was wasted thinking they had more time to have an advantage. Machaboo took the earliest opening out of most chances they had to start an offense. Otherwise, he either took alot of damage or lost a round.

1) vs. Koichi 

- A good example. He ends a ground combo into STBT which now Machaboo has to shake out of stagger. There is time for Koichi to fly in and do a mixup. Machaboo shakes it in time and 6Ps the mixup into a hard knockdown. Pretty sure Koichi could have done Chemical Love afterwards for a knockdown instead of resetting the situation.

- After establishing that Machaboo was blocking notes, he moves in and lands short since he's preparing a mixup after note. Of course he goes for j.K, I-No's go-to for a mixup but a deceptive one IF someone is preparing to get mixed up after they block note. Machaboo 5H'd the attempt and it ended in a round winning counter hit combo.

- Let's check the opposite. Koichi gets a good note setup near the end of round 2 that ends up with him doing 2-3 overheads within the note. Here, Machaboo was not given an opening therefore he had to take it and react accordingly. He got hit with the 3rd j.K for Koichi to take the round.

- Third round is a blowup. Koichi did a combo that didn't exist. From a j.D that Machaboo blocked. Whoops.

2) vs. Karinchu

- Let me first start this off by saying man did Karinchu get shat on for this one. Like bad.

- This match only had one declaration revolving around it: If you don't finish your plate, I will mash on you. There were three throw attempts past what would seem to had been a knockdown combo. And all three times, Machaboo mashed 2P on Karinchu. He didn't even get a combo. He just wanted to not get thrown. The one time he /did/ get thrown in the first round, the disc setup that Karinchu used was the one that can be DP'd out of. And Machaboo did just that.

- The second round had Karinchu being rather fidgety in his response to pressure, and Machaboo adjusting to what he's done in the previous round. The thing is that both of Karinchu's failed throw attempts from round 1 came from a pin confirm into 2K. This round, he's given the same situation, but instead of a throw Karinchu does 5D after the 2K to catch the mash. Machaboo sees the 5D and blocks it, feeling Karinchu wouldn't dare try to tick throw from that distance again.

- Then all of a sudden, Karinchu with meter! And the fun begins! Machaboo eats 3 mixups. But what happens afterwards is rather interesting to me. Machaboo ends up midscreen and Karinchu starts up Secret Garden xx Charming Rose. Machaboo is blocking SG while Karinchu...does pressure that ends in hair car. O...kay. Machaboo blocks the car and tries to Stun Dipper to punish (maybe if car was IB'd) but is too slow and Millia dashes over. Now I believe Karinchu overshot the air dash so now he's in the corner. A stray rose from the dash actually HITS Machaboo but Karinchu is too late to confirm and then gets 2D'd into "wow I bursted on CSE."

3) vs. Ogawa

- This one was good. Real good.

- Ogawa fucked up the least but you can clearly see Machaboo wanting absolutely 0 to do with Eddie. What's crazy is that I'm sure he will accept the AA shark/Ky 2K trade all day over having to deal with Eddie pressure. I mean yeah Zato gets a combo but that's all he gets. You tech in the air and you start running back the neutral before Eddie gauge fills again.

- The first chance Ogawa got to run game ends up backfiring when he gets too close to continue pressure. Machaboo IBs Eddie P and GRABS Zato for being too close. Even if he was out of throw range, Machaboo was still holding back so H would not have come out because Ogawa kept his distance. That got rid of Eddie and gave Machaboo a running start. Until he stopped running and jumped.

- Quick lesson on YRCs in Xrd: If a move hits something other than the opponent (a normal or inanimate object), you are still viable for a YRC instead of an RC. Why? Because the opponent is not in hitstun; you rather hit something the opponent owns. This is why moves like Hammerfall are scary with 25% meter thanks to the super armor it has. It can easily be YRC'd during that armor because of the startup having armor. Near the end of the first round after Ogawa bursts mixups, Eddie is summoned on the ground near where Machaboo will land while Ogawa jumps. Machaboo lands, does SD, THEN YRCs to stop Ogawa's descent. Very smart, but uses j.K which whiffs and allows Ogawa to land and air throw.

- Ogawa made some heavy misreads in round 2. 6K in neutral (misinput) at the start and the blitz shield after 6H. There was one instance here and in round 3 that he summoned Eddie from 2S. From the front in round 2 and from a puddle behind Machaboo in round 3. He Stun Dippered both of them. The front got rid of Eddie but air combo'd and the puddle equaled a free knockdown. 

- Aaaand round 3 was a blowup. Ogawa lands crouching to the first Greed Sever of the entire grand final. Whoops.

Now there was alot of risk with all this; Machaboo had to completely disregard opponent oki at times which led to alot of CHs and bad backdashes on wakeup. A normal (and mostly sane) player's first reaction to seeing I-No's note, Millia's disc, or Eddie when they're knocked down is to block and react accordingly until you either get hit (loool), a character has ran out of options, or see openings. And I know, there was alot Machaboo did right in the neutral and a testament to how strong the foosies are with Ky but in these particular matches, they were not the only deciding factor to him winning it all.

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