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Amadeous

Jam v. Potemkin (GGACR)

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5.5-4.5?, Slightly in Jam's Favor:

Overall:

A scary matchup but less so from AC, Potemkin's nerfs to Slide Head means Jam can afford to mess up more and get away with it, along with her damage potential being untouched. While being predictable against Potemkin will mean death for her, Jam has the tools to keep Potemkin guessing and played well Jam can control the entire match without Potemkin getting a chance to fight back. In addition, the changes to Potemkin's combos means he has trouble comboing her.

Opener:

Potemkin's only able to reliably do 4 things at the start of the round: Guess you're going to run in over the ground and try to Potemkin Buster you, guess you're going to IAD at him and try to Heat Knuckle, or play it safe and just block whatever you try to do. He can also jump forward, wait to see what you do, and jS, but if you see this your own IAD jS will stop this. Because of this you have to be sure your match opener is unpredictable and vary it up. Jam's got lots of options to get her own momentum started as well. Dash 2D will beat out anything Potemkin does other than Potemkin Buster, and will recover fast enough if he jumps to chase him with a jS. IAD jP will also stuff anything he does, along with giving you the option to use jS if he jumps. Take note that being predictable with this will result in being Heat Knuckled/6P'd though!

Another option is to IAD away at the start of the round if you're not comfortable playing the guessing game. Be sure to super jump and watch Potemkin however, so you don't IAD and land right on a Slide Head. If he whiffs a Slide Head like this, you may be able to sneak in a charge?

Neutral:

The neutral game in this match should mostly consist of you staying well away from Potemkin until he presses a button or messes up. His 2S will stop most of Jam's attempts to run in on the ground, and Slide Head will at least stop you from trying to charge a card. Potemkin can approach if you give him the chance to, but he has trouble catching TK Ryujin if you just want to run away. Playing the baiting game to get him to overcommit is what you can do here, and vary up your approaches so he can't easily punish them. Rushing in blindly will get you beaten out by Potemkin's big normals such as 6P, 2D, etc. When you do rush in, cover yourself with gatlings so he cannot use Hammerfall to eat through the hit and punish you.

As always, your jS will keep Potemkin from going in the air. Be careful of his own jS though, it's got a good enough hitbox that if the Potemkin uses it well it's harder to jS and you'll eat a CH. Otherwise, Potemkin should be staying grounded. Many Potemkins like to use jD after a tech, or just when they're high in the air, to return to the ground quickly. You can punish this by jumping at using your jS for the clash, then continue to mash jS to hit him for free. If you're not confident with the timing, stay grounded and parry his jD, or learn the angle of attack he's coming in at and do a meaty 6H. The 6H will prevent him from landing into a Potemkin Buster, and gives you the chance to start pressure.

Offense:

Even when you have Potemkin on the defensive, he's still very happy with his situation. While he has a large hitbox making some crossups easier on him, he can easily IB Buster many of Jam's moves. IAD 214K is a free buster, along with a Puffball that goes in too deep or ANY crossup 236SH. Ideally, you'll go for a few blockstrings and maybe a mixup, but if it doesn't hit you can jump away and re-space. Using 6H during your pressure strings is very good, as it's throw invul will keep Potemkin from trying to Buster you during every frame trap. In general, vary up your blockstrings, don't try to overcommit unless you know he's not expecting it, and know when to jump away and go back to neutral. With 25 Meter, Jam can even do a 22D from full screen safely. Potemkin
can
Slide Head, but Jam will gain her 3 cards anyway, and Potemkin will be too far away to get any real momentum from it.

Potemkin's large hitbox makes comboing him and getting knockdown VERY easy, fortunately, meaning you can make the most of your combos despite his high damage modifier. Potemkin's defensive options are limited outside of IB Buster/SB Buster, but he does have an amazing backdash. Sporting 20 frames of invul and only 1 frame of recovery, it can get him out of a lot of situations. He'll mostly be trying to backdash your 6H, along with any IADs you do during pressure or Puffballs. Doing 6H H on reaction is possible to seeing his backdash, and can punish it if you start 6H H fast enough. IAD jP mash is also relatively safe, recovering before he does or just putting an active frame late enough.

Defense:

Being on the defensive against Potemkin is a terrifying prospect. The first thing to do is recognize his Potemkin Buster setups. His jD, 5K, Mega Fist FRC, and Hammerfall Brake are all possible Potemkin Buster setups. To deal with them, 6H if you're feeling confident, or 1F jump if you're less so. Note that doing the latter too much will result in you getting Heat Knuckled if he predicts enough. Potemkin's pressure is not too scary against Jam. It is sometimes possible to parry his 2S during his blockstrings, getting you out, and if he ever decides to jump at Jam she can easily parry or jS him. Being knocked down against Potemkin is where it's much more scary. The biggest hole in his pressure is after a 2D, where he will either end his pressure or do Hammerfall Brake to continue it. Vary up how you're trying to get out of this situation, since again, Potemkin can read what you try to do and punish you for it.

Potemkin's 5K will eat parry-happy Jams alive. It hits low and is active for a long time, making it a perfect meaty attack against her. You should always expect this unless you see him jump or go into the startup of 6K/Slidehead. Doing wakeup parry OS (546H on wakeup) is an option, one that will be beaten by meaty 5K, but will stop him from doing meaty 6K/Slide Heads or just grabbing you with Potemkin Buster. If he tries to do a meaty Slide Head from midscreen to give himself more time to get in, use a 236D against him. Invul and in the air on frame 1, you'll punish him every time.

Other Notes:

Potemkin's hitbox is fat enough that 2D jC air combo is an option. 2D TK 236K also works.

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Not mentioning his godlike backdash? This one's really hard for Jam to deal with from what I experienced. (I only played this matchup in AC, but there are no changes.)

Using 6H during your pressure strings is very good, as it's throw invul will keep Potemkin from trying to Buster you during every frame trap.

6H traps are one example for a backdash on reaction. 10 frames of recovery aren't that much, but still enough for a 5P or buster. As an early meaty however, Jam recovers fast enough to punish the backdash.

Other stuff thats backdash fodder:

Any sort of gekirin. (Not sure how the new 214D interacts with his backdash considering how early he would have to do it.)

IAD-jumpins depending on spacing/timing on landing in case of whiffs due to backdash.

All the 236S followups in general.

Dust, obviously.

--

Pot's j.D (I believe the hitbox is unchanged as well.) is unbeatable, even for Jam's ridiculous j.S coming from below. It will either lose or clash from my experience. But as usual, parry is the best anti-air.

Waking up into Potemkin is horrifying, and I would recommend always keeping cards for that situation. Going apeshit and throwing cards around just to get out of there is not all that wrong of a thing to do against him.

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Shoot, knew I was forgetting something. I'll add it in.

6H H can be used sometimes to catch his backdash recovery, I know that much. And like you said, meaty 6H recovery is short enough to punish backdashes. IAD jP x N mash seems to be okay against backdash as far as I can tell, even if he does backdash you'll land well before he recovers. 236S followups recover quick enough as well but I would still watch doing 236SH, still easily punishable. I want to say 214D actually does well against his backdash, but I haven't tested it enough in matches.

Potemkin's jD is easy to deal with. jS will always clash, it only loses if you time it wrong. At that point hammering on jS will beat anything Potemkin does after the clash. If you're not comfortable with that, staying on the ground and parrying or doing a 6H just outside his angle of landing are the best options. 6H moves your hitbox back making it harder to hit, along with punishing him if he tries to jD -> Pot Buster.

I agree on the last point though; Potemkin can't do shit about 623K -> 236D. At best he can get a Slidehead? Just don't put yourself into the corner with 236D...

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