GGST/Axl Low/Strategy

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Overall Strategy

Gameplan

At mid-range, challenge the opponent's ground approach with 5P, 2P and 2H, and punish aerial approaches with 6K and 2S. j.5P and j.S can be used to challenge the opponent's aerial movement as well.

End combos with Snail to force the opponent to long-range, and threaten with Rensen, Rensen(8), Rensen(S) and Winter Mantis.

On Rensen(8) hit, the opponent is knocked down at point blank range for a close-range mix-up opportunity.

Neutral

Many of Axl's moves are high-commitment - a wrong guess can put you in an unsafe situation. Pay attention to whether your opponent tends to keep to the ground or take to the air, and cover ground approaches with 5P, 2P, and 2H, and air approaches with 6K and 2S.

j.S is a versatile attack that can be used as a keep-away tool while jumping back, or to keep the opponent locked down while jumping or air dashing forward for more pressure.

6H can be an aggressive ground tool to try to win a counterhit combo, but is more of a risk.

Snail, which can be used on the ground or in the air, has incredible range, but be careful of the long recovery.

Close Range

Although Axl has fewer options to defend up close (no DP and no counters), he does have access to some frame traps and counterhits that can make close-range offense rewarding. 2D and 6H in particular provide opportunities for huge counterhit combos. Threaten low with 2K and 2D, and mix in an occasional 5D.

Okizeme/Setups

As always, there's nothing wrong with just going back to a safe neutral distance with Axl, locking the opponent down on wakeup with 5P, 2P, and 6H and having 6K ready to challenge their air movement.

Unlike Xrd where knockdown relies on keeping the opponent's height low enough to disallow an air tech, Strive has no air tech, and ground recovery is automatic - the type of recovery is dependent on the move used, not height. 2D, Axl Bomber, and Sickle Storm cause hard knockdowns and should be used in cases where you want to start safejump pressure.

Rensen (8) > c.S > IAD > j.H is a consistent safejump setup that works only against some character's invincible reversals. It is safe against May, Axl, Faust, Ramlethal, I-No's invincible supers, as well as Ky's meterless reversal. It does not work against invincible supers from Ky, Millia, Nagoriyuki, Giovanna, or Anji, or from meterless reversals from Sol, Chipp, or Leo.

Corner safejump: 2D > (slight delay) IAD > j.H - have to wait just a hair after 2D recovery to IAD in order to get the timing

TK Bomber safejump: c.S > TK Bomber > 66 > IAD > j.H - a very quick dash before the IAD helps control the timing as well as make sure you are close enough for the j.H

Ways to get into TK Bomber to go for knockdown (using c.S in these examples but 5K is usually pretty interchangeable as it is the other jump cancellabel move)-

Throw > RC > c.S > TK Bomber
j.H > c.S > TK Bomber
(CH) 6H > c.S > TK Bomber
j.H > c.S > TK Bomber > 66RC > c.S > TK Bomber (or any fancy combo into RC, as long as you can run up and catch with c.S)
Meaty 6H > c.S
j.K or j.D > Axl Bomber

Defense

Use Yellow Roman Cancel (YRC) (similar to "Dead Angle Attack" from Xrd) to stop opponent pressure. Faultless Defense and Instant Faultless Defense can be used to gain space. Use Rainwater to escape to mid-range.

Matchups

Sol Badguy

Ky Kiske

If you can bait out his DP with a safejump setup, can punish with a 2D just as he's landing for a counterhit combo.

Potemkin

Throw Hammerfall. If he breaks, he loses armor and you can punish. 2P > 6K can be thrown in-between. Watch for 2P into Mega Fist.

Chipp Zanuff

Instant FD doesn't change frame data like in Xrd - instead it pushes the opponent back. Probably want to use this to keep Chipp out. Can interrupt his rekka overhead ender with 5K > TK Bomber (https://twitter.com/nuttacon/status/1363179992977453063).